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Gold dropped lower mainly because of the Fed’s statement that it would increase rates in December. In its statement the Fed forecasts three more rate hikes in 2018. In addition they announced that its balance sheet is going to be reduced, pointing to a potential tightening of its monetary policy. Gold is currently testing support levels at $ 1275 per ounce.

On the other hand is gold finding support from the conlict that is still brewing between Catalonia and Spain. On Monday, the Catalan President Puigdemont will issue a statement on the outcome of last Sunday’s referendum and its consequences and It is certainly conceivable that he will declare Catalonia’s independence.  The coming US labour market data could be distorted gold to the downside as a result of Hurricane Harvey, which the market is likely to take into account. If there is no negative surprise, the gold price could be sliding below the 100-day moving average of $1,273 per troy ounce.

Gold jumped to a 10 month high after North Korea fired a missile that passed over northern Japan. The symposium of the central bankers in Jackson Hole couldn’t clear its direction as the market was waiting for comments from the central bankers. During the speeches of Yellen, there were really wild movements with high revenues in the futures market of Gold. According to reports, the Bundesbank completed the relocation of its gold inventories to its Frankfurt headquarters significantly earlier than planned. Gold is currently trading between $ 1275 and 1325 per ounce.

Gold, silver and platinum prices are trending lower with further important support levels broken. The firmer monetary policy rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and even the Bank of England, have raised the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. While this happens, investors would keep an eye on geopolitical developments, they expect these to rise before too long, but weaker precious metals prices should therefore lead to even cheaper havens should the need arise.

The Fed raised its reference-rate into 1.25%, although inflation remains below the target of 2%. The Fed also pointed out how they plan to unwind its balance sheet. They are going to limit each month on how debt they would be buying. The precious metals were mostly down on the rate hike, gold dropped to $ 1257. Analysts of the bullion banks still believe in higher gold prices up to $ 1300/$1400 per ounce at the end of 2017.

Palladium outperformed in June and reached “highs” since 2015. Continued supply deficits remain the cause. Palladium noted all-time highs in euro’s and highs since 2015 in dollars.

A decent period for the yellow metal again. It recorded a price increase of approximately 2.8% until the end of February, and with 1,260 /oz climbed to the highest level since November 2016. This increase did not go unnoticed by investors in the Euro area either, where gold also reached a 3.5-month high with a rise by more than 26 €/oz to 1,190 €/oz. Several price drivers can be held responsible for this move. The debate on the US's nuclear rearmament, the continuing uncertainty regarding US domestic and foreign policy as well as the Fed's agreement regarding the timing of the next rate hike in the Dollar zone are all lending support to gold. But investors are convinced that the rate hike is forthcoming. Which don’t have to be that negative for gold. Even after last-years rate hike gold performed quit well.

Before the elections in the U.S. the outlook was mostly in favour of gold if Trump should became the winner. Well the outcome is different. Since  then gold lost 10% from it’s value and cracked $ 1200 support. Current levels at $ 1185 could become good buying opportunities. But we don’t know if pressure on gold will last. Major headwinds for gold are higher rates and the stronger US dollar. 

Gold price rallied after Fed decision

It was a bit of a surprise that Fed didn’t raised the interest rate, gold could climb up to $ 1344. The expectation is now that a rate-rise comes in on December, but still there’s some uncertainty. Gold could benefit from this uncertainty. Other supportive impulses for the gold-price are the coming from the uncertain outcome of the US presidential election. Most investors are already positioning themselves for a rise in prices. 

Gold prices have been stuck sideways. Price-drops didn’t lead to sell-offs and prices continue to keep up well. Which might be evident that the sentiment remains bullish. Gold remains important for diversification in investment-portfolios. Uncontrollable global debts, negative interest rates, geopolitical tensions and the coming US elections could be all reasons for uncertainty in the market which cab drive the gold price higher. US Central bank minutes shows a divergent Fed with a reducing chance for a rate rise. So after all still good buying opportunities are available at www.tov-hazel.com .  

Rather hawkish Fed meeting initiated a dollar rally, which has weighed on the precious metals. The dollar and oil could be main drivers of gold coming days. There's also uncertainty on a possible Brexit, which is driving invester to safe haven investments such as gold. Golddemand out of India fell back caused by government rules. The recent weakness was also seen as profit-taking in a bull-market. Let's keep our eyes on the next Fed-meeting.

Gold demand reached 1,290 tonnes Q1 2016, a 21% increase year-on-year, making it the second largest quarter on record. This increase was driven by huge inflows into exchange traded funds (ETFs) – 364t – fuelled by concerns around the shifting global economic and financial landscape. Higher prices and industrial action in India pushed global demand for jewellery down (-19%), while total bar and coin demand was marginally higher (+1%). Central banks remained strong buyers, purchasing 109t in the quarter. Total supply increased 5% to 1,135t. Hedging by producers (40t) supported an increase of 56t in mine supply, although countered by a marginal decline in recycling.

For the latest version of the GFMS Survey on Gold 2016

 

 

Gold continues to benefit from a flight to "safe havens": The price for the precious metal was rising up to 1,263.90 $/oz, the highest level in a year. In percentage it was the largest intraday increase in four years. Against the euro the metal priced moved up to 1,109.50 €/oz, its highest level since April 2015. As in previous weeks the trigger were losses on the stock markets. Here the fear of a new financial crisis rose up again. Markets corrected again a little downwards but still the bull trend remains intact. We still expect markets to be volatile.

Gold still regains its reputation as "safe haven". In the last weeks, the metal rose up to 1,170 $/oz, triggered by the growing uncertainty in the financial markets. After China was at the center of attention in this regard in recent weeks, the fear of market participants is increasingly shifting towards the US: There are first hints pointing towards a slowdown in economic growt. In euro’s gold rose towards € 34.000 per kilogram.

Markets interpreted the recent FOMC statement as dovish, helping gold continue its journey higher. Negative correlation with equities helps rebuild gold's image as a safe haven. More investors across the board are increasingly paying attention, but strategic positions have yet to be taken. Gold is trying to make itself comfortable above the $1100 psychological level. The latest report from Thomson Reuters GFMS shows that physical demand grew by 2.2% y/y in Q4. Jewellery fabrication was actually down by 2.0%, while retail investment was up by 5.0%, mainly driven by bar purchases. In China, Jewellery consumption was down by 5.8% during the quarter, but retail investment was up considerably by 24.1%. While economic uncertainties and currency weakness impacted jewellery consumption negatively, this seemed to encourage investment in gold as a safe haven. In particular, limits to how much foreign currency locals can buy in a year made gold an alternative to protect against further CNY depreciation. Physical demand in India was more upbeat overall, with jewellery consumption up 13.7% and retail investment also up 18.4% for the quarter. Jewellery consumption in India last year was estimated to reach a record high of 703 tonnes.

Gold prices jumped above the $1,100 level on Tuesday, hitting their highest levels since last year’s November on renewed risk-aversion buying amid fresh falls in equity markets and an extension of oil price declines. Bullish report by GFMS helped, they'll see prices above $1,200 by the end of this year.

Stock-markets in China came under pressure, Dow had to take losses and Gold had its safe haven status as geopolitical tensions grew. Gold has held up well in spite of strong payrolls data on Friday, yet appears to be struggling to break above the 100-day moving average at $1,109 for now. In addition to support from physical buyers. Strength in physical gold came more from India, which should not be too surprising given seasonal demand. In addition to the wedding season in India, the key festival Diwali occurs in November, falling on Nov 11 last year. Festival-related consumer buying likely prompted restocking during the remainder of the month, taking advantage of cheaper prices. Gold in euro’s popped up from € 31.500 last Wednesday to € 32.500 per kilogram in the weekend.

 

 

 

Gold inched higher on Monday, driven by safe-haven buying following rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that knocked equities and the dollar lower. Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran on Sunday, responding to the storming of its embassy in Tehran in an escalating row between the rival Middle East powers over Riyadh's execution of a Shi'ite Muslim cleric, according to Reuters. Gold was mainly higher in dollars, the movement in euro’s was capped by the euro/dollar movements.

Physical demand remains huge, especially out of China. This reproduces 80% of the global gold output. Rest of the physical demand is as usual out of India, but the USA and Europe are reinventing the physical metals as well.

Gold in euro’s remaining at € 31.500 per kilogram, silver at € 415 and platinum is trying to reach € 26.000 per kilogram.  Good luck !

With a stronger dollar continuing to weigh ahead of the US Fed’s decision on a rate hike next month, gold was slipping further. This week will be focussing on more US data releases, such as unemployment claims, nonfarm employment change and the unemployment rate.

Despite growing demand out of Azia couldn’t manage gold on it’s support levels. The gold price in dollars per ounce slipped to $ 1.056  In euro’s per kilogram gold lost strength as well, but losses were limited due to a stronger dollar. Gold could hold at € 32.150 per kilogram.

 

Rising expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise rates next month, make the metal’s upside potential likely to be capped. Although Russia added 600.000 ounces to its gold reserves and China following still gold slumped down towards $ 1070 per ounce.
In euro’s gold’s drop was limited due to stronger dollar.

Highlights of World Gold Council reports showed that gold demand climbed 8& to 1.120,9 ton as bar and coin demand drove gains. Central banks still bought more reserves but ETF holdings declined. The mine production was cut but total supply edged up with 1%. (http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-demand-trends) The tragic Saturday night attacks in Paris caused safe haven buying in gold. The yellow metal rose 1 %.

 

 

Significant better than expected US employment figures lifted the US dollar last Friday. Gold had to test lower levels and lost almost 1.5 %. The price went down towards $ 1085 per troy ounce. It’s hard to believe that a rate rise in the US is not discounted by now. Gold in euro’s per kilogram lost some ground as well, but due to the stronger dollar was capped at € 32.500,-

The central bank of India (RBI) issued some guidance on the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS), which was proposed during the Budget discussion earlier this year and approved by the Cabinet in September. Further details will follow, given key festivals are just around the corner. It also comes ahead of the launch of the scheme, which according to recent news reports could be announced very soon, potentially ahead of Dhanteras and Diwali this month.

Gold failed to gain of the rate cut of the central bank of China. The move came shortly after the ECB stated they were willing to expand the current stimulus measures. Gold was expected to move higher but the yellow metal had to lose some ground. Gold is trading between a range of $ 1155 - $ 1180. Support levels were upgraded. Gold in euro’s per kilogram gained to € 34.000.

Dollar felt and gold jumped after poor US Jobs data last Friday, the goldprice surged to $ 1138 per ounce. China’s recent update to its gold holdings put it in fifth place among gold holding nations. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently confirmed the practice of moving the People’s Bank of China’s reserve assets to other entities in China. Gold in euro’s reached almost € 33.000 per kilo and then after some profit taking at € 32.400.

Fed ‘rate unchanged’

 

The US FED Open Market Committee (FOMC) had again delayed a decision to raise interest rates. The gold-price and US-dollar reacted as one should have expected. The first gained in strength and the dollar lost ground against most other currencies.

Gold reached $ 1130 levels and took silver with it in it's slipstream towards $ 15,20 per troy ounce. We see gold trading in a range between $ 1100 - $ 1148 for the time being. The prospect of a Fed rate hike looks still very low. U.S. data showed a surprise fall in inflation, which is one of the main focal points for the Fed.

Gold and silver could both experience wider trading ranges and increased volatility in next month, due to expectations on coming Fed meeting on September 17.

Gold has moved away from resistance at $1,163 last week, stronger-than-expected US GDP growth puts an additional damper on prices. Nevertheless, latest US economic data remains insufficient to materially alter Fed expectations for now, especially after recent comments from a couple of Fed members which suggested some hesitation about moving soon. Uncertainty lingers as the September FOMC meeting looms. On the other hand gold gets support from healthy gold appetite from India. Current price in dollar per ounce at $ 1134 and in euro’s per kilo at € 32.400,-

A fresh start of another session of negotiations to rescue Greece from a “default”. Important issues where Europe want the greek authorities to intervent include pensions and the tax system. Dollar weakness and the decline in US 10y yields also helped gold to keep current levels. Prices are not too far from what we would regard as the psychological $1200 level now, but we think more is needed before the market can break convincingly out of the range it has been in this year.

Gold's negative reaction to considerably stronger US employment data on Friday was relatively muted - the market dipped about $10 towards three-month lows around $1163. Gold's overall price-adjustment on the back of positive US data was probably over $30, which helps explain why the market managed to bounce off the lows with relative ease and is now trying to regain footing around current levels.  But that does not rule out the potential for gold to remain vulnerable for now. The market has been drifting lower since mid-May as the price failed to break higher levels. Current levels can again be good buying opportinities.

According to supporters of techinal analysis gold could break out of it’s current range. This could mean a downward price movement. Gold failed to break current highs at $ 1220 and therefore could test lower levels.

There are still suggestions that China may will introduce a gold standard. This could have major impact on the goldprice. The gold exports of China should be reduced radically. The country should add more gold to it’s reserves which is (officially) still, according to reports of World Gold Council, contradicted. The current range for gold is between $ 1170 - $ 1220 which is in euro’s per kilo € 33.500 - € 35.500.